6 reasons Why Buhari may lose 2019 Presidential election
There have been interesting arguments over President Muhammadu Buhari fitness to contest the 2019 Presidential elections. While some people argue based on his integrity regarding the WAEC certificate scandal and his fight against corruption, others argue based on his performance, describing it as abysmal, slow and non-consequential.
But no matter how you see it and barring any last-minute court injunction, President Buhari will contest the 2019 presidential election, but these 6 reasons may cause him the election.
1. The fall out of the All Progressive Congress (APC) Primaries
The just concluded APC primaries in Nigeria was marred by so many controversies, such that the governor of Ogun State, Ibikunle Amosun, described the process as ‘offshore rigging’. According to him, the national chairman of the APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole through the APC primary election has opened a new chapter in the history of elections in Nigeria, ‘a situation where a gang of desperate politicians will sit somewhere in another state and write the result of an election that never took place’
There have been similar complains in Imo, Rivers and many other places. The governor of Imo State, Rochas Okorocha in a recent interview, disclosed that the outcome of the APC primaries has cost Buhari over 5 million votes and accused Oshiomhole of treating court orders as tissue paper.
There is no doubt, APC primaries has raised so many questions and concern that may affect Buhari’s chances in 2019.
2. The Fulani herdsmen crisis
Not much has been heard about the Fulani-herdsmen crisis in recent times but the conflicts they created especially in some section of the Middle Belt was a threat to national survival. So many people were killed, communities and farmland destroyed but till today the government of president Buhari has failed to prosecute or hold anyone responsible for the mayhem.
According to an opinion by Forbes, the Fulani herdsmen crisis does not appear to gain the government’s attention or trigger decisive action. Many analysts accused the president of covering up the mayhem to protect his kinsmen who they suspected to be members of the alleged killers Fulani herdsmen.
The Press release by Miyetti-Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN) in the wake of the killings in Benue State, did raise serious concern about the crisis which was not addressed by the President.
“The current situation in our opinion is fuelled by the draconian laws put in place by some state governments with the singular aim of chasing our people out of the states simply for ethnic hatred.
“The anti-open-grazing law in Benue, Taraba and other states is nothing more than a symbol of intolerance and do not in any way intend to solve the farmers/grazers conflict as the livestock breeders’ interest is neither captured in the law nor in its implementation mechanism” MACBAN stated.
3. The El-Zakazaky and Shiites factor
The leader of the Islamic sect, Ibraheem El-Zakzaky, and his wife, Zeena trial has raised some serious concern on President Buhari’s ability to truly lead a democratic country. For instance, the numbers of people allegedly killed by the Nigerian Army in the ongoing protest by the Shiites to free their leader is alarming. It may interest you to know that President Buhari allegedly bowed down to El-Zakzaky in 2014 to get his support but thrown him in jail after winning the election.
4. The Fight against corruption
The Senator representing Kaduna Central in the National Assembly, Shehu Sani sometimes ago described President Buhari’s fight against corruption as a sham. According to him ‘When it comes to fighting corruption in the National Assembly and the Judiciary and in the larger Nigerian sectors, the President uses insecticides, but when it comes to fighting corruption within the Presidency, they use deodorants’
This has been a general feeling of a majority of Nigerians. According to our research, Nigerians sees the Economic Financial Commission (EFCC) as a tool in the hand of the Presidency to force many opposition figures who are vocal to support him or face prosecution.
It is on records that even some of those accused of massive corruption in the Presidency have not face any trials.
Most Nigerians voted for President Buhari based on integrity that he would be able to fight corruption and make Nigeria better but the lopsided approach to the fight against corruption will certainly affect his chance of winning in 2019.
5. Confrontation with IPOB
Former Presidential Spokesperson, Reno Omokri on June 29, 2018 in the wake of Killers Fulani herdsmen massacre in Benue accused Buhari of roaring like a lion for IPOB but turning a cat for Herdsmen
“Buhari roars like a lion for IPOB, for Shiites, for militants, and for Tiv/Berom militia, but when it comes to his beloved herdsmen kinsmen, he turns to a pussy-cat.”
Many analysts believed that President Buhari handling of the IPOB crisis has already cost him the South East.
Some also believed that the theory of IPOB that President Buhari was a double is seriously gathering real momentum and may cost him the Presidential election in 2019.
6. The many failed promises of 2015.
President Buhari did make so many promises during the 2015 presidential campaign which he has not fulfilled. For instance, he promised to ensure diligent implementation of annual budgets to guarantee accountability and transparency in public resource management, this he has not done effectively. He promised to stabilize the naira if elected by ensuring that the country’s currency is equal to the dollar, this he has not done. At a campaign rally in Kano and other places, he promised to create three million jobs yearly to solve the problem of unemployment. This he has done partially with N-Power but the number is not up to half of what he promised yearly.
He Promised to build four new refineries in four years. He promised to Ban government officials from seeking medical care abroad but he spent almost 3 months of his presidency seeking medical attention abroad. This and many more will affect his chances of winning the 2019 Presidency.
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