Reasons Why Buhari May Win February 2019 Elections
President Muhammadu Buhari at 72 is hale and hearty and well disposed for second term in office. He is not a quitter, very determined, he is most loved by our northern brothers; having been defeated in three consecutive elections, he was patience, but persevered and worked assiduously for success which eventually was realised in 2015 when he led a coalition of opposition parties to achieve a historic victory, defeating the incumbent.
Reasons Why Buhari May Win 2019 Elections
- Anti Boko Haram War Having campaigned to wipe out Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria, President Buhari has been waging serious war on eliminating the terrorist organisation. All attempts by the terrorist group to gain incursions on other parts of Nigeria, particularly outside Borno state have been successfully foiled. Territories they took earlier on have been recovered, Chibok girls have substantially been released. Dapchi school girls, despite the controversy surrounding their adoption and subsequent release, many people still see Buhari as winning the abduction battle because of his apparent quick response to the rescue of the girls.
- Anti Graft Campaign The president commitment to fighting corruption has been praised both at home and abroad. His administration has done better than his predecessors and results are clear for everyone to see. Nigeria today ranks 24th place on the world bank ranking as being a country that it is easy to do business and earned the tenth place on the list of reformers in the world.
- Foreign reserves. The president actually promised economic rejuvenation in his 2015 election campaign and this he has been doing with impressive results. The external reserve has gone up to an unprecedented level and the rise is continuing; recently the CBN announced that the foreign reserve rose by 19% in three months period and stands currently at ₦46,554bn
- Power (Social Investment Scheme) This is another jumbo project that is meant to touch the lives of many people and is aimed to eradicate poverty in some parts of the country. The 3 in 1 initiative includes:
- Engaging unemployed graduates with a monthly stipend of ₦30,000. 200,000 graduates nation wide have been engaged and another 300,000 are expected to be given jobs soon.
- ₦5,000 monthly allowance for each individual to be given to people living in the poorest part of the country. 300,000 are receiving this amount already.
- Feeding children in schools. 7.4million children are benefiting from the scheme already in 22 states.
- Agriculture The Buhari administration has made a giant stride when it launched two initiatives – the presidential fertilizer initiative PFI and the Anchor Borrowers Programme, sponsored by CBN. The Food and Agricultural Organization FAO in its annual report said the food insecurity in Northern Nigeria has dropped by 50% under Buhari rule. Nigeria also has boosted its food production especially rice produce, and consequently the price of rice has come down by over 30% since early 2017.
- Locally generated revenue. This is the area this administration has done pretty well, having raked in from the customs service over ₦1 trillion and JAMB bringing in over ₦8 billion compared with remittances from 2010 to 2016 of about ₦51 million of JAMB revenue during the previous administration.
- Power There is a huge increase in power generation – from 3,000 to 7,000 megawatt. However, distribution is restricted to 5,000 megawatt because of infrastructural deficiencies. The future we are told is bright because we should expect 24 hour power supply soon.
- Integrity In the streets everywhere he goes but particularly in the north east, Buhari is like a saint, because the name Buhari commands the respect of all social classes of society. Buhari being one of the poorest president of our time – beginning from when he was governor to when he became petroleum minister and through to when he was chairman of petroleum trust fund, the story has remained the same – poor. He has used this political gimmick before and he is likely to use it again to his advantage.
- The number game. This is the area he has a relative advantage. From the Independent Electoral Commission INEC register, about 73,944,312 were registered as voters today, save about 300,000 already expunged automatically since they failed to meet the finger print test. The remainder is shared among the 6 geo- political zones.
Registered voters 73,944,312
North central 10,586,965
From the foregoing number of voters, the Norths have the highest number of voters and that is the Buhari stronghold, followed by Southwest, from where the vice president comes from. Buhari is winning in the number game.
- Other cogent reasons why he may win the next general elections.
- Buhari’s name stands out The name rings a bell to an average person in the Northeast, Northwest and North central. He is much loved on the street and crowds of people surge each time he is around chanting ‘sai Baba’. Notwithstanding his short comings, his personality is a big factor. Candidates seeking election into the National Assembly/Governorship are often voted in simply because they can identify with the name ‘Buhari’.
- Defections Both the PDP and APC have witnessed great number of their members cross carpeting but the actual number of these people cannot be determined with certainty. It is a factor affecting both two main political parties but the extent to which they are affected, whether negatively or positively cannot be estimated with certainty. However, the former governor of Akwa Ibom state, the senate minority leader, Senator Akpabio stands out. It appears he commands a lot of political clout to stand him in good stead; he can cause PDP voters to swing around in Buhari’s favour in the next elections.
- Incumbency power This is where Buhari is expected to take advantage as a sitting president. For example:
- He has almost unlimited access to funds; from donors/sponsors, and even can dip his hand into state coffers, though taking money from the state coffers is illegal, but can still be done skilfully and avoid detection.
- Publicity News organisations scramble for president’s attention and want to report on everything the president does. Buhari has media advantage.
- If he chooses, he is capable of influencing the outcome of the election through collusion with the electoral body or the use security forces – not recommended.
- PDP disunity as a result of the choice of Vice President. This is no longer a big deal since the issue here originally was not the choice of Peter Obi, but the process of choosing Peter Obi because the ‘Ndi Igbo group was not consulted before the choice was made. This issue has since been resolved even before Peter Obi visited the Ebonyi state governor, Dave Umahi,
- Tinubu/Oshimhole factor Both leaders manipulated the APC primaries in certain degrees and if not properly resolved could have a negative effect on APC should any of the aggrieved persons decide to take his followers to PDP. But these issues are being addressed at the national level, even the President has intervened to resolve the crises and so no negative impact will be felt by APC and Buhari eventually.
All the reasons listed above if converted into electoral/promotional campaign for Mr President, will surely earn Buhari victory in 2019.